Fivethirtyeight.com
Fivethirtyeight.com is a fantastic political site that has an incredible amount of information about the Presidential race in November and a number of predictive polls that are updated almost daily. It is hard to truly describe the site, but the FAQ section of the webpage offers the following:
How is this site different from other compilations of polls like Real Clear Politics? There are several ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations. Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster’s historical track record, the poll’s sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages. Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demograhics in each state among our ‘polls’, which helps to account for outlier polls and to stabilize the results. Thirdly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes.
If you are a political junkie, this is one that you truly have to check out for yourself. We did so for the first time about two weeks ago, and now it is in the daily rotation. Click on the image below to visit.
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Comment by WileyOne | June 10, 2008
Comment by ggfirm | June 11, 2008